iHurricane HD graphic
The 0500 EDT forecast has just come in and Irene is now a minimal hurricane off Cape May, NJ. The current track takes it onshore up most of the Jersey coast which should fort her weaken it before it reaches the City.
NOAA graphc
The track has moved west overnight and landfall is now predicted in the Rockaways, the farthest west that it has been.
NOAA graphc
Forward speed has increased with every advisory after passing Cape Hatteras, as is normal. That is good for us on the left side of the storm as forward speed is subtracted from rotational speed and results in less damage. The opposite is true on the right of the track so Nassau will be in worse shape than us. As I write this Central Park is reporting 20 mph winds rather than the 50 mph that was forecast.
NOAA graphic
WeatherBug Graphic
Most of the rain is on the left side of the storm though so if we aren't experiencing flooding yet it is to be expected.
WeatherBug graphic
US Navy graphic from iHurricane HD
The Weather Channel graphic
We have already had 2-3 inches of rain within the past 24 hours. That isn't as much rain as we were supposed to have gotten.
The Weather Channel graphic
And high tide at the battery is at 0810 EDT, shortly before the passage of the eye, so we will see a lot of extra water being blown into the Long Island Bight causing coastal flooding and beach erosion.
The Weather Channel graphic
The Weather Channel graphic
Barometric pressure is very low from Georgia up through Massachusetts.
WeatherBug graphic
0615 EDT
I just got a news flash from CNN that Irene came onshore at 0530 EDT in New Jersey near Little Egg Inlet. That is roughly on the predicted track.
I - 1.6
iHurricane HD graphic
Irene is about 1.6 hours from NYC. The intermediate advisory puts it 40 miles to the SSW moving at 25 mph with a continued increase in forward speed forecast.
It is still a minimal hurricane with winds at 75 mph. Our winds are averaging 16 mph with a couple of gusts near 59 mph but even most of the gusts have remained below tropical storm force. Hurricane force winds are supposed to extend out 125 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 320 miles. The Central Park weather station must live a very sheltered life. The JFK forecast shows the winds peaking out at 48 mph from 1100 EDT to 1400 EDT and the Central Park forecast has also been downgraded to a wind peak of 48 mph at noon.
NOAA graphic
The track has shifted farther west and now crosses Sandy Hook, NJ, Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, Queens, and City Island. I wondered if that would happen when they shifted the track onshore through NJ.
NOAA graphic
And Tropical Storm Jose has just formed near Bermuda. Forming that high up and that for out it will probably not pose any threat to us. And indeed it is forecast to be short lived weakening tomorrow.
0935 EDT
Citing NOAA as it source CNN is reporting that Irene has been downgraded to a Tropibal Storm with maximum winds of 65 mph as of 0930 EDT. They also day that the storm has arrived in NYC but they don't say where or when it made landfall. It has all but stopped raining here an I am thinking about running over to the North River to see what it looks like. Both rivers are reported to have overblown their banks and flooded parts of Manhattan.
I did go out and walked down to Pier 84.
Times Square was empty.
I walked across to Pier 84 and on many blocks I was the only person. I only had three vehicles pass me by going east and two of them were police cars and the other a FDNY Rescue company out on a run.
You are taking your life in hour hands crossing with the light at the West Side Highway but not today. There was no one on the highway and I crossed against the light.
These two fuel lighters had just tied up to the north side of Pier 84 when I arrived. Their sterns said they were out of Wilmington, DE. I asked if they had run up here in front of the storm but the captain said that they are from Elisabeth, NJ and that their base is 4' under water so they had come up here for safe harbor until the storm passes. He had been told that the storm was still approaching and he should stay at the pier. He said that the black lighter out in the center of the river was one of theirs and they had to keep an eye on it because it was an old boat.
The water was higher under the pier than it should have been.
I continued walking north along the riverfront park eventually making my way all the way up to 61 St. Somewhere in the low 50s I came across this platform hanging out over the water with benches. There were a bunch of foreign kids, French I think, there putting their shoes on when I arrived. I guess they had had a photo opp.
Up in a more posh section of town there is a group of statues created by students at the Art Students' League. This one of the androgynous figure with the flowing hair seemed particularly apropos. The wind was picking up by then and its hair was even blowing in the correct direction.
Back at Times Square things were starting to get back to normal. There were more tourists doing the normal tourist things.
Then down on Broadway at 44 St I ran into these two rugby teams out in the middle of the promenade having a scrum. The guys in blue are the French team and early this morning they were on The Weather Channel body surfing down the street in the rain. Mostly now they were trying to stay on their feet on the slick painted macadam.
