iHurricane HD graphic
The 2300 hurricane advisory is in. It says the storm will still be a hurricane when it passes here at 1100 EDT ob Sunday. But the probabilities attached to that forecast say it has a 48% chance of being a tropical storm and only a 25% probability of being even a Cat 1 hurricane.
The track has been moving back and forth between the City line in the west and Babylon in the east. This forecast they have it back at Babylon.
NOAA graphic
But the error cone is still large meaning they are confident that it will be somewhere between Allentown, PA and Cape Cod, MA.
NOAA graphic
There are some nice satellite images of the storm.
If they told me where this came from they'd have to kill me, but I got it from iHurricane HD
If they told me where this came from they'd have to kill me, but I got it from iHurricane HD
The mayor has ordered a mandatory evacuation for all coastal areas of the city. The order covers part of my zip code, but not my part. The NY Times says in an article on their web page that the order affects 370,000 people, but in a sidebar they say 250,000. It is still a lot of people whose houses are supposed to be empty by 1700 EDT Saturday. And there will be no mass transit for them to leave on after 1200 EDT Saturday. The forecast for Central Park indicates peak winds of only 69 mph at 1100 EDT Sunday.
NOAA graphic
The JFK Airport forecast puts the winds at 74 mph, the threshold for a hurricane.
NOAA graphic
So the City s taking a one size fits all approach rather than inconveniencing only those people at greatest risk.
When you look at the larger picture this major event is really pretty insignificant. And it is necessary.
NOAA graphic
I - 24
The hurricane is supposed to be here in 24 hours. The wind graph is still showing peak winds at 1100 EDT tomorrow. it has been moving at 15 mph and is supposed to continue that pace and is currently 405 miles away so crunching those numbers puts it here at 1400 EDT tomorrow and indeed the forecast track shows it off Sandy Hook at 1100 EDT tomorrow.
NOAA graphic
But this is a huge weather system so the arrival of the eye isn't all that important. We are already in the hurricane.
GOES IR image from ~0500 EDT
NOAA graphic
GOES water vapor image from ~0500 EDT
NOAA graphic
The track has drifted west again bringing it onshore in Nassau County close to the City lint.
The forecast maps still show it as a hurricane at both 1100 and 2300 EDT tomorrow but the associated forecast probabilities say it will more likely be a tropical storm.
We will be seeing tropical storm force winds for sure but we only have a 10% chance of seeing hurricane force winds at that time.
NOAA graphic
NOAA graphic
In reviewing the track overlain on the bathymetry I was struck by how closely the track has followed the continental shelf. I would like to see a similar plot of the gulf stream or a plot of the position of the gulf stream and the hurricane center at each forecast advisory time. I think there would be good agreement there.
I - 12
iHurricane HD graphic
It has finally started raining here and sounds like it is of moderate intensity.
WeatherBug graphic
I had a map of the forecast rain total for the storm but can't find it now, have erased the screen capture from my iPad and can't find the original source. As I remember it we were supposed to get 7-8 inches. I did find a set of NOAA maps covering the next 24 hours, but they are not as useful as the map I lost.
NOAA graphic
NOAA graphic
NOAA graphic
NOAA graphic
We are currently under a Tornado Watch and a Flash Flood Warning.
The track has drifted west and now back east during the day today. It is now calling for landfall on Long Beach, Nassau County, but will probably drift both east and west before it actually gets here. But it appears to be a Nassau County landfall.
NOAA graphic
The error come is shrinking and now ranges between Parsipony, NJ and Hampton Bays, Suffolk Co.
NOAA graphic
The forecast still says that it will be a hurricane when it gets here, but the probabilities say it has a 65% likelihood of only being a tropical storm.
The Central Park hourly forecast is still putting the maximum wind at 70 mph at 1100 EDT.
NOAA graphic
According to the NOAA Wind History chart we haven't seen tropical storm force winds yet.
NOAA graphic
Here are the maps for the probability of tropical storm force and 55 knot windlass of 2000 tonight (NOAA hasn't updated their graphics yet). We aren't on either of them.
NOAA graphic
NOAA graphic
We have a 100% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds by 0800 tomorrow and a 40%-50% that we will see 50 knot (58 mph) winds then.
NOAA graphic
NOAA graphic
At 0800 EDT tomorrow the storm is supposed to be off Toms River, NJ.
NOAA graphic
NOAA graphic
Satellite Imagery
US Navy graphic from iHurricane HD
US Navy graphic from iHurricane HD
US Navy graphic from iHurricane HD
Barometric Pressure
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Here is the map of the midtown evacuation areas. The only one that is currently mandatory is the gold area along the North River. But the police are not going door to door to enforce it.
NYC Mayor's Office of Emergency Management graphic
