At 2047 there was a mag -8.5 (per ISS Detector/Heavens Above, -7.2 per CalSky) flare from Iridium 15 right next to Saif in Cygnus. I can't estimate magnitudes and would not have any frame of reference for something that bright so no matter which magnitude it actually was it was very bright. It flared right about where it was supposed to. I had a false sighting of its approach when cloud movement made it look like Deneb was in motion.
CalSky graphic
At 2106 there was a mag -1.1 (per ISS Detector/Heavens Above) ISS visible pass. It went right past Polaris. My estimate of where it would start was off so so was when it would go into the shadow, and it didn't get as high as I thought it would. But we say it all the way across the sky in spite of clouds of varying densities.
Heavens Above graphic
CalSky had an experimental listing for a MetOp B flare for 2202 at mag -2.6. It was only supposed to be at altitude 20.5° which may be why I didn't see it. That is right around the local horizon and where the atmosphere is the densest. But at -2.6 I would think it would have shown through the clouds. I have tried to observe this satellite on several previous occasions based on the CalSky predictions and have never had success.
CalSky graphic
